PCA Predicts Moderate Growth, Slowdown through 2021
The Portland Cement Association released its annual Fall Forecast which predicts moderate growth for cement consumption through 2019 and into 2020. PCA Market Intelligence expects cement consumption will grow by 2.4 percent in 2019, 1.7 percent in 2020, and 1.4 percent in 2021.
"Public construction continues to receive the benefit of the 2018 federal budget that allowed for $20 billion in spending on roads, bridges, water, and rail projects over 2018 and 2019," said Ed Sullivan, PCA senior vice president and chief economist. "These gains come in the context of increased challenges at the state level to manage deficits as entitlement spending growth continues at a strong pace."
PCA's analysis adds that the labor market continues to power the United States economy and on a monthly basis has generated 161,000 net new jobs since the start of the year. Coupled with mild inflation rates and the continued rise of home prices, it will take some time before the economy takes a significant downturn, the association said.
"The economy is now the longest economic expansion post-World War II history,” said Sullivan. “Some of the pent-up demand zip that invigorates the initial stages of economic recovery are long past. As such, the economy is now more vulnerable to economic shocks. While PCA does not believe data revealed by the economy suggests a recession is near, it does point to a gradually weakening economy."
PCA forecasts real GDP will grow 2.4 percent this year and weaken in subsequent years to 2.1 percent in 2020 and 1.7 percent in 2021.
For more information visit www.cement.org/economics.
About the Author
Michael Roth
Editor
Michael Roth has covered the equipment rental industry full time for RER since 1989 and has served as the magazine’s editor in chief since 1994. He has nearly 30 years experience as a professional journalist. Roth has visited hundreds of rental centers and industry manufacturers, written hundreds of feature stories for RER and thousands of news stories for the magazine and its electronic newsletter RER Reports. Roth has interviewed leading executives for most of the industry’s largest rental companies and manufacturers as well as hundreds of smaller independent companies. He has visited with and reported on rental companies and manufacturers in Europe, Central America and Asia as well as Mexico, Canada and the United States. Roth was co-founder of RER Reports, the industry’s first weekly newsletter, which began as a fax newsletter in 1996, and later became an online newsletter. Roth has spoken at conventions sponsored by the American Rental Association, Associated Equipment Distributors, California Rental Association and other industry events and has spoken before industry groups in several countries. He lives and works in Los Angeles when he’s not traveling to cover industry events.