U.S. Cement Consumption Expected to Dip But Recession Not Probable, Cement Association Says
U.S. cement consumption is expected to decline by 1.6 percent this year, but a recession prompted by ongoing trade wars is not expected in 2025, according to predictions included in the American Cement Association’s (ACA) Market Intelligence team’s Spring Forecast. The ACA’s remarks were released last week at the 67th IEEE-IAS/ACA Cement Conference in Birmingham, Ala.
“’Uncertainty’ is a key consideration for the construction industry’s outlook in the near term,” said Trevor Storck, ACA regional economist. “The cement industry’s baseline assumes continued improvement in trade negotiations, like the progress seen this week with China. This will provide relief to markets and help restore some investor confidence, supporting a rebound in economic activity.
“But it’s important to note that elevated interest rates that hindered construction activity last year are still in place and continue to play a role in this year’s projections.”
Key data points in the ACA Market Intelligence economic forecast include:
· ACA’s baseline calls for the economy to narrowly avoid a recession this year before stronger growth returns in 2026 and 2027.
· Labor markets are expected to continue cooling in 2025, without a significant rise in unemployment.
· The key headwind facing housing remains affordability. Elevated mortgage rates and home prices will take time to rebalance, holding back growth in near-term home building.
· Outside of strong growth in data center construction, commercial markets are expected to continue easing in 2025.
· Highways and streets construction has been plagued by the high inflationary environment of recent years.
o This effect is slowing but states’ expenditure growth is also easing.
· In total, there is no obvious driver for cement consumption growth during 2025.
· However, as headwinds fade, modest cement consumption growth returns in 2026 before more robust growth in 2027.
*(Please note: The American Cement Association was formerly known as the Portland Cement Association. The organization formally announced its rebranding on May 7, 2025.)
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Michael Roth
Editor
Michael Roth has covered the equipment rental industry full time for RER since 1989 and has served as the magazine’s editor in chief since 1994. He has nearly 30 years experience as a professional journalist. Roth has visited hundreds of rental centers and industry manufacturers, written hundreds of feature stories for RER and thousands of news stories for the magazine and its electronic newsletter RER Reports. Roth has interviewed leading executives for most of the industry’s largest rental companies and manufacturers as well as hundreds of smaller independent companies. He has visited with and reported on rental companies and manufacturers in Europe, Central America and Asia as well as Mexico, Canada and the United States. Roth was co-founder of RER Reports, the industry’s first weekly newsletter, which began as a fax newsletter in 1996, and later became an online newsletter. Roth has spoken at conventions sponsored by the American Rental Association, Associated Equipment Distributors, California Rental Association and other industry events and has spoken before industry groups in several countries. He lives and works in Los Angeles when he’s not traveling to cover industry events.